Early NFL lines often mislead, like when a team opens at -3 and drifts to -4.5...

https://codysuniquecolumn.talesignal.com/posts/what-does-it-mean-when-the-market-already-bought-the-improvement

Early NFL lines often mislead, like when a team opens at -3 and drifts to -4.5 by game time. Jumping in too soon means risking worse odds and less value